R.T. Williams observes that several top producers are spending every dollar of oil revenues, so any price drops will incite production increases rather than the rational expectations of constraining supply. Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, Russia need revenues at current levels in order to avoid dipping into reserves to maintain spending policies. Venezuela has no foreign exchange reserves to speak of suggesting that they will be among the irrational producers due to the imperative to maintain spending or risk losing power to rivals. Oil is about to take a big fall.
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