The Smoked Eels of Thebes

Dienekes, the Greek nationalist blogger, brings a research that confirms Aristophanes satire on the rich Theban traders. The study compiles a dietary profile for the inhabitants of Classical Thebes, using δ13C and δ15N isotope analysis, comparing this evidence with information on diet as presented in Aristophanes’ comedies (Acharnians, Plutus, Wasps). Merchants from Thebes oftentimes appear in his work, reflecting the city’s wealth. Among the goods deriving from this region, eels feature prominently, and are praised as an exceptional delicacy.

Stable isotope analyses of bone collagen were carried out for individuals from the Classical burials of the Northeastern cemetery of Thebes. Results show a remarkable increase of the nitrogen values relative to the previous periods, which is not accompanied by an analogous enrichment of the carbon values. This profile can partly be explained by an increased consumption of freshwater sources in Thebes during the Classical times, such as Aristophanes’ famous eels.

The pic shows smoked eels in Somerset, England. Dienekes insists that modern Greeks are direct descendants of ancient Greek population. I doubt it. Where are the smoked eels of wealthy Cadmea? Where are the descendants of the Thebans? Where are those ingenious Aristophanes?

Cerro Azul on the Galapagos Island: Activated

Generous Nature offers a rare delicacy: Giant turtles cooked in their shells. Organic. No fossil oil burned. No CO2 emissions. Eat with a knife and a spoon and a large glass of aguardiente with salt and lemon.

Israel winning the Demographic Challenge

Everybody knows that Israel is losing its demographic war against the Arabs and that it is doomed to become a minority in its own country. The idea is based on two falsities: that Israel is Western country like, say, Italy or Germany, and that Muslim high fertility is a constant. But Israel is not a Western country in any sense, and currently Jewish women give birth to an average of 2.8 children (as against 1.1 in Italy and 1.3 in Germany). Israel has a powerful momentum, so it can be predicted to grow even faster. Regarding Israeli Muslims, contrary to the ICBS (Israel Central Bureau of Statistics) predictions, the UN Population Division documents that the dive of Muslim/Arab birth rates – with the backing of Moslem religious leaders - is the fastest in the world. For instance, Iran’s fertility has collapsed from 10 children per woman 25 years ago to 1.8 in 2007, while Egypt and Jordan fell below 2.5 and 3 from 7 and 8 children per woman respectively. I always maintained that Palestinian Arabs are a Mediterranean population, and they follow Mediterranean customs, which means that it will follow the example of Greece, Italy, Spain, which have the world lowest fertility rates. We are going to win this war too.

Oil Price´s Coming Collapse

Demand is contracting worldwide and only in the countries where oil is subsidized, like China, Iran, Venezuela (where a liter sells for 5 cents) consumption is still rising. According to the above graph, 7% of world GNP is spent on buying oil. This cannot go on, so oil is due to fall again to sustainable levels.

I am not acting on this insight because I was burned a year ago.

Shekel is the World Strongest Currency

For those having lived moments when the country´s mere existence was in question, the strenghtening of the shekel is a miracle, a Biblical wonder. Since the begining of 2008, the shekel has gained 15% against the dollar, and slightly more against the British pound and the Canadian dollar. It is up 8% versus the Swedish kroner and has picked up 24% against the South African rand. Even the solid euro has had a hard time competing with the shekel, and has fallen from NIS 5.74 at the beginning of April by 12% to yesterday's NIS 5.06 - its lowest rate in five years.

The shekel´s strenght reflect the investment flowing into the country and the success of its exports.

Shaye Steiner, the Tokaj Miracle Working Rabbi

Hungarian Jewry produced many wonder rabbis and Sáje Steiner was one of them. When he died on April 23, 1925 (ijjár hó 3-án), special trains were organized to bring his followers from abroad to his funeral. His coffin was made from the wood of his favorite table. An ohel (small house) was erected on his tomb.

The Rabbi managed an open house. No one who came in on Friday left without being fed. His wife´s kitchen was always busy, each week they bought dozens of geese and ducks, prepared large sweet breads with water (kalacs) and sent them out to the poor.

Sok sólet (csólent) készült itt, ami babfőzelék liba-, vagy kacsahússal. Sok libát vágtak, s füstre tették. A csólent is kemencében készült. Sokszor láttam, amint a sátoros ünnepeken a kucska (kis ház, a mai virágbolt) tetejét felnyitották, s ott gyékényen térdelve sokat imádkoztak. Piremkor (purim), húsvét előtt nagy volt a készülődés. Eszter-napkor mulattak, ez volt az örömünnep. Eszter megmentette a zsidókat. Pénteken mindenki bemehetett a rabbi házába, kapott enni. Nem volt ott más, csak a puszta falak. Ilyenkor babgulyás, bableves főtt, ezt kapta mindenki.

It is told that a heavily loaded carriage went along Keresztur´s main street. In front of the Rabbi's house, the horses stopped and refused to move. The balagula (transporter) beat the horses. The Miracle Rabbi was praying but looked out the window, to see the cause of the noise. "Leave two sacks of potato in front of the door, you will see the horses start moving," he shouted down. So they did. A typical, sweet Hassidic miracle story.

The pic was taken on a tour to the tombs of the saintly rabbis of the Tokaj hills. Tokaj was a center of Hassidic life before the war. Its wine industry was developed by the Jews in the 18th century. The pic figures in a local website with the footnote: Megmentett áldozatok sokasága (The super-abundance of surviving victims). There are reasons why my Father did not like Hungarians, not only because he had been severily beaten by the MUSZ keretlegenyek (guards).

African Orcadian (VI)?

Orcadians, it seems, are not discriminating.

Siberian Husky Orcadians (V)

Maybe Mr Moroco is right and these are not true Orcadians?

North Chinese Orcadians (IV)

On the collapse of the US Dollar

It has been asked on my favorite financial board what is causing the phenomenal collapse of the value of the American dollar vis-a-vis the Israeli shekel. I answered that America is paying back its accumulated debts with debased currency, and then, buying oil with green rolls of paper. All is true, but there may be a deeper cause too. USA is the most salient anomaly in Prof. Richard Lynn's concordance between national IQ and GNP. He found large positive residuals for eight countries: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, Qatar, South Africa, Switzerland and the United States. Negative residuals are large for nine countries: China, Iraq, South Korea, the Philippines, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Thailand and Uruguay. In case of the United States, it is a country with an average intelligence with a GNP of 50,000 $, almost double of what it "deserves". I have speculated that the anomaly is consequence of its being the military hierarch of the planet, and a residual of the imperial system established by England during the 19th Century. It may also be the consequence of being the home of sizeable high IQ minorities, specially the Puritan descendants (20 million), the Jews (7 million) and various refugee groups (about 20 million). But American demography has changed substancially, and the GNP may be adjusting to the new situation. It is interesting to note that the anomalies discovered by Lynn in 1998 are, ten years later, tending to disappear. China, South Corea, Russia, etc. are advancing, while South Africa and the United States are falling back. All in all, if anything, America's relative military power has grown, so the decadence of the dollar may be temporary. I dont know.

Scrambled Eggs a la Nero Wolf

Nero Wolf is a very rich "Montenegrin" (It is obvious that Wolf is a crypto-Hungarian Jew. Like Alex Korda, being a Hungarian Jew was undistinguished in the thirties, so he invented a more exotic and undescipherable origin). He settled in New York in the thirties and organized his life according to the demands of his lipidous sedate physique and extraordinary intellectual capabilities. He loves gourmet food and breeds rare orchids. Of course he is not real, but his cookbook is. He dislikes females and is quoted saying that "a women could never make these scrabled eggs because she isnt patient enough".

Ingredients:
6 large eggs
1 cup light cream
1/2 teaspoon salt
2 grindings fresh ground pepper
2 tablespoons butter
4 tablespoons clarified butter
few drops tarragon wine vinegar

Directions:
Bring water in the bottom of a double boiler to a boil and reduce the heat so that the water barely simmers. Use an asbestos pad if necessary. Break the eggs into a small bowl and add the cream, salt, and pepper. Beat vigorously with a whisk during 40 minutes. Melt the butter in the top of the double boiler and add the egg-cream mixture. Cover and place over the simmering water.

Allow to cook undisturbed for about 15 minutes. Uncover and stir with a wooden spoon and continue to stir continuously until the desired degree of firmness is achieved. Be sure that the water in the bottom section does not reach a full boil. In the meantime, cook the clarified butter in a heavy-bottomed pan over low heat until it turns a dark brown. Be careful that it does not burn. Add a few drops of vinegar, stir, and serve as a sauce for the scrambled eggs.

Cook Island's Orcadians (III)

KOOR Holding Company: Buy, Sell, Hold?

It has been demonstrated that the most productive application of my time is this: thinking and investing. I have much work to do and my clients are claiming and phoning nonstop (I am here in my working room from 6 AM till now 1030PM, stopping only for a siesta) but I feel it is necessary to spend time on what I love most and produces the most - thinking.

Why I am losing money so much money on Koor? Koor is a holding company, meaning that invests on companies and manages them, selling, merging, etc. them according to arcane calculations of tax and finance advantages. Holding companies are efficient managers of investments, so much that in the 1900's there were forbidden in the USA. Berkshire Hathaway is the world's most successful holding company, and it has made rich many investors, such as David Gottesmann. The format has advantages.

Koor's market value is 1.033 Billion US dollar. Koor owns 39.6% of Makteshim, a very successful agrochemical factory. The market value of KOOR's holding is 1.628 Billion US dollars. That means that the market values the Makhteshim shares held by Koor at 63.45% of its market worth. But Koor has additional holdings: Owns 21% of Ectel, which I dont know what is, and 61% of TELRAD, a successful electronic company (not traded on TASE, so I dont know its worth), 70% of DekoLink whatever that may be, and 50% of Epsilon Investment House (worth at least 50 million dollars). In addition it has a start-up venture fund and some real estate. In summary, it can be concluded that Koor is being sold for half of its worth. And getting cheaper day by day.

Why Koor stinks? Its management has announced several deals lately, and no one of them got made. TATA was to be bought off, and so on, nothing. The last is the intention to secure a large credit line to buy European Bank shares. The financial papers wrote that Koor's thinkings was bizarre, unbecoming for a holding company. They wrote that holding companies are always undervalued, and for good reasons. Is that true?

Looking at the graph, it can be observed that the great fall of KOOR started on January 1, 2008 when the mutual funds sold their holdings (for tax purposes or rotating strategy) and it has not revived from that point. Apparently, the opinion of a few Israeli mutual fund managers determines Koor's stock exchange worth. Which is little and falling. What is the conclusion of this reflexion? None, I never reach any conclusions. I only think.

The Coming Meat Shortage

``We are witnessing the globalization of meat as incomes rise,'' said David Kruse, president of CommStock Investments Inc., an agricultural broker and researcher in Royal, Iowa. ``The first thing these consumers buy as their incomes rise is more and better food, not a flat-screen television or a computer.'' Yes, the first thing the English wanted in the 1900's was Argentine frozen beef. Big, very profitable business.

And this is just the beginning. By 2030, China's per capita meat consumption is expected to hit 50 kilograms, equal to neighboring Taiwan. Granted, that's still barely half the levels projected in wealthy nations like the United States, but because China will have 1.6 billion consumers by then, the impact of this relatively modest increase will be extraordinary. Even now, China's meat mania is implicated in everything from deforestation in Brazil to food-price inflation in Africa, and most resources specialists expect that this nutritional domino effect will only intensify. "I cannot imagine what the world will look like when China is as wealthy as Taiwan," Tian Weiming, one of China's top food security experts. "It will be very different."

Full Sail

After a few good days, my portfolio reached a respectable sum, exactly 47% (in inflated US dollars) UP from January 1, 2008. Except KOOR, all my potros were running ahead of the manada. KOOR owns Makhteshim Agan agricultural chemicals factory, whose price is rising like a rocket. KOOR is traded with a 50% discount. The illustration shows the Morning Light yacht at full sail. How I would like to be sailing in the Caribbean, catching swordfish. They rent yachts at 7,200 dollar per diem.

The Orcadians (III)

Collecting my fees

I have great difficulties in collecting my fees. The Economist writes that Japanese loan sharkers call a borrower's workplace a dozen times in an hour demanding repayment. Or send debt collectors to his home in the middle of the night. If the fellow said he could not pay, the representative recommends he sell a kidney or an eye to raise the cash (and offer to remove it for him). The yakuza, the tattooed mobsters, are in the background. The problem is that my clients would laugh off those illustrated gentlemen. My people are hardened Levantine low life "businessmen", they dont understand why they should pay me if they can evade the pain, they have no sense of Jewish or otherwise guilt, they had never met anyone with a sense of shame. Unlike those nice, polite, decent Japanese.

Beating an upwind course on the Stock Exchange

Ordinary people think that it is not possible to sail directly into the direction the wind is coming from. It is possible and many have done it. The secret is technique and health.

A racing boat can sail 35 degrees off the wind. However since it is often necessary to move towards the wind direction, it is necessary to 'beat' upwind. Beating is simply a series of 'tacks' where the boat sails as close to the wind on each tack as possible, and then switches sides and repeats the process. By this method, it is possible to travel directly into the wind. The heavier the wind the harder the beat, and since you are sailing into oncoming waves at an angle, boat movement can be heavy. This movement can feel like the boat is beating its hull into the waves, hence the name.

I am beating upwind on TASE. Just when I am starting to get the technique, I am reminded that my game is about to end.

My students are employable

I heard that my last year's class was collectively contracted to work for a large (non water) corporation, all thirty of them.

Phasing Out Chemical Energy

I am starting thinking on how we will fight the distortions caused by 100 years of cheap oil. Chemical energy will disappear and electricity will take its place. Electricity can be generated by

(1) nuclear reaction, which produce unmanageable long term radiation danger. Japan has lately closed down several nuclear plants and is returning to oil. China, after the last earthquake, may think in imitating the Japanese. Korea is embarked in building more reactors, but Japan may cool them down. Korea is too near to Japan and the wind blows toward the islands.

(2) Wind generation is feasible, but wind is capricious. Good winds are in faraway places and maintenance and transmission are expensive.

(3) Photovoltaic power seems to have arrived to a plateau. Needs large investments in transmission and storage. At night it stops dead.

There seem to be no alternatives. The chemical world is ending. We, chemical beings, are being phased out by the evolution that brought us here. As good Pope Benedict said, without God we have nothing. As I cannot imagine God, I have nothing.

I love Bush

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we. George W. Bush, August 5 2004

Racing Upwind

TASE and NASDAQ are crestfallen and depressed, but my stocks are racing upwind. Except KOOR, which also today lost height. That is my worst mistake this year and I have no excuses. The background of the upwind racing yacht is the Sidney Harbour Bridge.

Israel is running fast in the world innovation race. Israel venture capital investments surpass China and India COMBINED. The U.S. leads by far in all parameters concerning high-tech venture capital investments: $6.835 billion and 603 deals in the first quarter of the year. European numbers were $1.53 billion and 180 deals.

Coal

Coal is a global resource, it can be found almost anywhere and we have large amounts. But the problem is - if we leave the climate change out of this for a moment - that it is becoming more and more difficult to transport the coal from the mines to the consumption centers. ¨After having talked about oil prices already, let me tell you that the price for coal has more than doubled since the beginning of 2006. The coal prices, too, are rising because China has become an important importer while we don't see a major increase in production anywhere.¨ (Faith Biro, 2008)

Dream: Overstaying my welcome

I worked all night and at 11 AM fell asleep and had a vivid dream. There was some kind of house party in the home of a young religious Mitnahalim (settlers in the Shomron) couple and all the visitors had gone home except me, and I lived with the family during several days. At last mycar was found (I had forgot where I had parked it), packed my things and said thank you, good bye. My hosts who had been very polite to me till then turned sarcastic and suggested that they had not enjoyed my staying with them, and the husband made me sign a long "Thank you" scroll that ended with the promise of never coming back. I was shocked because I had not been aware of their true sentiments. During these last weeks I had similar dreams of being in some kind of summer camp and all had left back home and had stayed, till after long I managed also to leave and the managers, very nice till then, half-thanked God for my leaving.

What does it mean? I am feeling unwelcome? Are they expecting my death? Ancient Egyptians considered dreams very important (pic of Thutmose IV Dream Stele near the Giza Sphinx, that records his falling asleep at the base of the Sphinx and dreaming that the god Hamarkis told him that if he would clear away the accumulated sand from the Sphinx and re-establish the god's temple, Tuthmosis would become pharaoh. It seems suspect to me, an ex-post-factum justificatory story to legitimize his advance). The foretelling of future events came through revelatory dreams. These dreams also revealed locations of hidden things as well as new medicines. Many times, Egyptian physicians instructed their patients to seek cures for their ailments in their dreams.

Adam Baruch z¨l Joined His Ancestors

Adam Baruch died today of diabetes. He was a singular figure in Israeli culture, born in the old Ashkenazi yishuv of Jerusalem, in Mea Shearim. His father was member of the Mizrahi Religious party and director of the Ministry of Interior. He never abandoned his Jewish roots even after losing his faith and serving in the Army. He chronicled Sebastia (the first successful settlement in Samaria after 2,000 years, by the Gush Emunim movement) and criticized the Mizrahi environment that engendered that movement. His ¨Lustig¨ was the first book I read in Hebrew, in one of those long lazy summer reserve services in the fresh Galilee mountain forests. In the end, Lustig ends in New York with his Yemenite wife.

The Orcadians (II)

Scrambled Eggs a la Nero Wolf

Rex Stout´s Recipe: Scramble the eggs during forty minutes. We had more time then.

The Orcadians

A new study of the peopling of Earth finds that Europeans did participate in the formation of North East Siberian peoples such as the Yakut and also in the creation of the Northern Chinese group.

In our inferred scenario there is little gene flow between East Asian and Europeans and the Yakut is the only East Asian population to have two European donors; the Russians and the Orcadians. The Russian contribution is not surprising because the Yakut live in North East Russia. The Orcadian contribution is particularly noteworthy because removing these donors reduces the log-likelihood of generating the Yakut chromosomes by 2.5 times more than removing donors from any other population. The Orcadians are also the only other European population to donate to other East Asians, namely the Han from Northern China and the Hezhen, who are also amongst the most Northerly East Asian populations in the sample. On this basis we hypothesize that there has been an episode of gene flow from Europe to East Asia.

Now, Northern Chinese do look much like Europeans, but who are the Orcadians? I had never heard about them. it appears they are Picts from the Orkney Islands.

The word Pict means "painted people" and probably referred to the Pictish custom of either tattooing their bodies or embellishing themselves with "warpaint". However, their Irish term, Cruithni, meaning "the people of the designs", seems to parallel the Roman name so it may be that Picti was an adaptation of the name they called themselves. The toponymic elements "Pett" and "Pitt" are a common feature of placenames in Pictish territories. The Norsemen, when they arrived in Orkney, described the inhabitants at "Pettr". Nowadays they have been diluted with Norse, Scottish, etc. blood are considered Scotts. The pic shows Cindy Crawford. She looks Orcadian to me, doesnt she?

No time for a businessman to die

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJh1iBaeang

If Futures Holding is Hoarding

Why are oil prices so high? I dont pretend to know anything, but reading Master's presentation in the Congress, pointing to the "buying and holding" oil phenomenon in the futures market, makes me wonder. He claims that putting a "buy and hold" in the futures market is a form of hoarding. A commenter in Econobrowser blog says

that is silly. For speculators, buying and holding still means selling the front month contracts in time for settlement and buying contracts further out, which provides more credit and liquidity to producers. Calling this "hoarding" is dishonest.

Yes, the futures market provides more credit and liquidity to the producers, a good point. Is it hoarding? No, but if futures prices are too high, producer may constrict current production and produce later, to get better prices. This thing, I believe, is not happening, because (1) third world government oil production companies (which produce most of the stuff these days) lack the capability to carry out that kind of complex fine controlling of their activities, and (2) they exist under permanent demands to deliver cash to the government and the infinite number of organizations and politicians whose sole income source is that production. Therefore, as it is today, futures speculation do not affect production levels. However, high future prices influence psychologically current prices.

Pulling Us Up by our Earlobes

One of my clients near Kever Benjamin is having trouble to receive the Municipality's permit to move in into his newly built house. The permit, called Form 4, synthetizes an infinite number of specific lesser permits, such as the fire fighters, the civil defense, the water and sewage department, the traffic department, the environmental union, and so on. One of this specific permits is unachievable. The owner is running after it for the last six months but the relevant department is unmovable. He asked me to help. The department is peopled by Russian immigrants, barely speaking Hebrew but with an encyclopedic knowledge of Israeli building regulations, and they are actually taking all that crap very seriously and demanding full compliance. They are yet unaffected by the Israeli mentality of "being reasonable". I talked to the Russians and they are not ready to lower or flexibilize their standards. No way. Throw down the building and build it anew according to the regulations. Simple as saying NYET. NYET.

In a way, they are admirable. They have pure and hard hearts, and demand reality comply with the high standards established in the rules. They are pulling us up by our earlobes to their lofty standards of perfection, they have accepted that their mission on Earth is to improve and perfect us Levantine natives, sure, sure, but who wants to be improved?

Calatrava in Jerusalem

Santiago Calatrava is the most influential architect in our generation and now he has two bridges in Israel, one in Petach Tikva and the second in the entrance to Jerusalem. One cannot avoid looking at these gigantic white phalli although walking on them is another thing. They are structures unnecessarily exhibitionist, violent and menacing. The pic shows the Malmo "Torso" building designed by Calatrava. I think on this architecture as barely functional, designed to transmit a message of elitist modernism. We couldnt stay behind, we had to keep up with the Johannessen.

Doing the math on oil

Jim's blog discovers that somebody else has being doing the math on oil. He says something like this:

Econobrowser has projected the growth of oil demand of China and concludes the this country will soon be consuming a lot more oil than is ever likely to come out of the ground. Therefore the price of oil will rise without limit.

Well, that will not happen. Trade and other wars will be fought for the oil, and the West will win once more. Imperialism, that practical English invention of buying raw materials cheap and selling manufactures dear, will be re-invented under a different name. That may have been in the mind of U.S. oil executives who told Congress yesterday that prices should be between $35 and $90 a barrel. John Hofmeister, president of Shell Oil Co., the Houston-based subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, pegged the proper range ``somewhere between $35 and $65 a barrel.''

Akasztofahumor

Question:How can you tell a Muslim moderate?

Answer:His throat is cut from ear to ear.

(Heard in Jim's Blog. The title means "Hanging tree humor" in Hungarian)

Erez Border Post Bombed

This morning, a lorry full of explosives destroyed the Erez border post between Gaza and Israel. Most of the international assisstance to Gaza, including food and medicines, passes through this facility. This action is positively suicidical. I see the same attitude in Burma (Myanmar) which refused to receive foreign help after the last tsunami disaster, or Zimbabwe, which let rot the corn sent to feed its famelic population. Like babies refusing to be fed.

Sedimentation tank

Visiting one of the wastewater treatment plants in the Shomron, designed by one of my distinguished Israeli water engineer colleges, I was astonished by this settling tank covered by a thick layer of green algae. The fellow forgot to provide an overflow feature to clean the floatsam, and it accumulates and developes in the surface. The layer creates an oxygenated layer immediately below and then a dark anaerobic depth of water. I¨ll have to think something to remedy the situation.

Recycling in the Shomron

Summer's irrigation season is on us and irrigation water allocations have been cut. All available wastewater is suddenly valuable and it has to be recycled in agriculture. The Jewish agriculture in the Shomron (Samaria) need the water and we are searching for available resources. Above, the pic of a working WWTP producing good water which is being dispersed by large sprinklers to make mud. The sprinklers create a cool mud pool which serves as bath house for the wild pig population of the area. I have nothing against the local fauna enjoying itself, but my mission is to connect the pumping station to the irrigation system. Very urgent.

AURA WARRANT 2 - Bought on the advice of the NOMAD

The NOMAD internet board personality, in one of his rare appearances, advised to buy AURA, and for the stronghearted, AURA WARRANT 2. he writes that the owners, Boaz Misholy, is buying and selling only small quantities to give liquidity to the warrant. According to MAYA information site (below in Hebrew), Misholy is steadily accumulating AURA.


בועז משעולי אאורה השקעות בע"מ 12/05/2008 29,150 500.00 145 38.31
בועז משעולי אאורה השקעות בע"מ 11/05/2008 50,481 500.00 252 38.25
בועז משעולי אאורה השקעות בע"מ 06/05/2008 12,945 492.00 63 38.14
בועז משעולי אאורה השקעות בע"מ 05/05/2008 17,651 492.00 86 38.11
בועז משעולי אאורה השקעות בע"מ 04/05/2008 44,958 488.30 219 38.07
בועז משעולי אאורה השקעות בע"מ 01/05/2008 66,333 473.50 314 37.97
בועז משעולי אאורה השקעות בע"מ 30/04/2008 18,489 453.20 83 37.82
בועז משעולי אאורה השקעות בע"מ 29/04/2008 93,199 463.00 431 37.78
בועז משעולי אאורה השקעות בע"מ 10/04/2008 90,814 490.00 444 37.57
בועז משעולי אאורה השקעות בע"מ 09/04/2008 8,828 482.00 42 37.37

NYT on Obama and the Jews

Is Obama good for Israel? The New York Times gives the answer:

Knock off the churlish whispering campaign about what’s in his heart on Israel (what was in Richard Nixon’s heart?) and focus first on what kind of America you think he’d build and second on whether you believe that as president he’d have the smarts, steel and cunning to seize a historic opportunity if it arises.

The example is relevant: Richard Nixon was a paranoid antisemite, but the best American President ever. He opened up China and made lasting peace between Israel, Egypt and Syria. An intelligent antisemite is better for Israel than a dumb philosemite. And a dumb antisemite like Jimmy Carter is a disaster for everybody.

Summer

Miri Buhadna, an Israeli top model, went down to the beach and revealed her hidden tattoo.

Membranes, The New Water Frontier

Membranes are becoming cheap and their applications are becoming wider. At present, membrane engineering applications are (1) the production of industrial pure water, (2) highly pure water and (3) drinking water, (4) the separation of industrial liquids and (5) the treatment of industrial wastewater.

Waltzing UBS

Pic.: In the last UBS shareholders meeting, Marcel Ospel and UBS directors faced a torrent of vitriol, many accusing management of flippancy and incompetence. Then UBS's CEO Ospel was sacked. However, with those enigmatic Swiss one cannot be sure if it was because he almost bankrupted the bank, or because he was photographed waltzing in Vienna with his trophy-wife. UBS seems to be the bank that emerges from the last crisis in the worst shape. The bank sank more than $100 billion into U.S. asset-backed securities, resulting in $38 billion in writedowns. At the end of last year, UBS was the most-leveraged major bank in the world, with assets amounting to 53 times its total equity.

Did I get it right? UBS not a solid goyische institution but a fantastically leveraged speculator? UBS not investing ultra-conservatively but playing (and losing its shirt) in Wall Street casinos? I thought that at my prodigious age I knew things and there would be little left for me to write down in a learning diary. But reality is forcing me daily to learn unexpected things and to change my way of thinking.

Calcium rich sludge

This morning I toured several small WWTPs in Shomron (Samaria), designed by people I know, and to my surprise, they are working. (That pretends to be a Hungarian bon-mot). One interesting pic is the sludge drying facility in Dolev (pic). The white part of the dry upper layer of sludge is, I think, almost pure calcium carbonate stone. The water is pumped from the Mountain Sandstone Aquifer, thich contains much hardness, finally shown in the sludge. The National Water Authority cut irrigation water allocations, so the farmers (and there is much Jewish agriculture in Samaria!) are desperate to receive treated wastewater for irrigation. The need to start watering in June, and I am in much hurry to prepare designs.

¨The Glorious Volga - Don Canal" Number 89846 Secondary School of Kiev

I just invented the name. The fact is the internet intruded into my girlfriend כדת משה וישראל social life and since then she is passionately searching for her schoolmates in the old Jewish Ghetto of Kiev. And she has found them all ! Most are in the USA, some in Israel, and a few still in Kiev. Yesterday we visited one of the old girls, married and living in Upper Nazareth. Economically they are well, built up the 40 sq.m. hut they received from the Sochnut into a double apartment two-story nice house. Local residential prices are way over the average in Israel, higher even than in Kever Benjamin, since in Lower Nazareth a censured, slow motion civil war is taking place, Muslims Arabs terrorizing Christian Arabs, who are desperate to move into Jewish Nazareth and are ready to pay very high prices. They rather like Arab Christians, middle class families paying high rents. The pic shows Viktor, the husband, a good-natured fellow who could pass unnoticed in Mongolia, except that his mameluschen is authentic shtetl Yiddish. The other pic is girlfriend history.

Orkit's Daily Graph

At the start of the trade, someone buys and pushes the price up, and at the end of the session, sells. It may be the effect of arbitraging against Nasdaq. Interesting.

3.69 % Mortgage in Israel

Apparently, mortgage rates in Israel are 3.69% for 20 years, a new low that makes investment in real estate even more attractive. An apt. (4 room) in Ariel is 130,000 $. I am thinking too much.

Ashkelon bombarded

Ashkelon was bombarded by the Palestinians, killing and wounding about 70 Israelis. They were shopping in a mall. Looking at the pic, I realized that modern Israeli commercial buildings are made of aluminium frames and plaster partitions, with wires and plastic pipes running in the panels. They are like paper buildings.

A Case of Haratzah on TASE

I am following Aura for about two years and observing the graph, it has downed on me that I had witnessed a clear case of ´haratzah¨, that is, a gang making money from the credulous investing or speculating public. Aura had the most active board on Globes and I was interested in learning so I befriended several board personalities, such as the DAYTRADER (Socher Yom). They provided constant updated information on the prospects of the company in Romanian real estate investment, and calculated the worth of the option on the basis of B&S formula. I did follow some of their advice and in general, I made a few pennies. Once, a member of the group wrote taht the option is about to jump to 700. I asked why? and he said that the B@S equation proves that. Laboriously (I was just starting) calculated the B@S value and to reach 700 it had to have a volatility of 70% which Aura did not have (only about 30%). He said that 70% was right. I said no and did not buy Aura Options. Consequently, there was a tremendous breakthrough (click on the graph) and he made much money and I nothing. Nothing published on the company justifies the sudden breakthrough but I am sure (it is obvious from the graph) that it was not predicted by the B&S. Till now I have no idea what made Aura's price rocket upwards. Gradually the option lost the public's attention and has been falling back to its former levels.

When I discovered that AURA owners are buying the stock, I decided to return and bought a few thousand shares. Already made 10% profit. Studying the graph I feel the board gang was conspiring ("haratzah" means manipulating the stock) and they did made a lot of money. Since then they disappeared from the board, or are writing under new names. This is a case study specially written for my learning diary. No doubt I am learning something every day, and I shall keep learning till I die as a very learned (and hopefully very rich) old Jew.

Uri Cohen analizes KOOR: "Bizarre"

Uri Cohen is an Israeli analyst that follows KOOR. He writes the strategy of KOOR is meshuneh (bizarre). In the last two years KOOR sold almost all its holdings,such as Elbit Systems, ECI, TAdiran Kesher, Elisra, and Scopus, Knafayim and Sheraton Moria Hotel Chain. The only company still held is Makhteshim Agan, that is filling Koor's bank account with cash.

Now KOOR announced that it reached an agreement with Goldman Sachs that will extend a 1.5 B credit line to allow KOOR to but some 2.7 B Barclay and Credit Suisse banks shares. Since these are very large banks, market values of 55 B, KOOR's large investment will not give him even a chair in the management. KOOR is acting, then, not as a holding company but as an investment fund.

I have confidence in Nochi Dankner (owner of KOOR) and am collecting its shares. I may be wrong, but KOOR's market value is lower than the cash in hand, a classical investment opportunity.

FOLLOW UP: The Sunday The Marker brings a note by Doron Zur titled: "Koor wants to invest in Barclays? It is Reasonable!" which is a direct answer to the above commented note. Zur notes that the investment in European banks is certainly different from the traditional KOOR we knew, which was holding company of almost a hundred industrial firms, but Barclays is a great investment opportunity and that is all that is important. That european banks are undervalued, earning 20% on capital and paying 10% annual dividend.

Israelis Forced and Paid to Think

The Israeli government is making everything it can to push people to invent things, to develope new technologies, to work on improving existing products. Now they are actively searching for people with ideas or inventions. They are ready to give them money to develope any feasible idea. A few years ago I presented a packet wastewater treatment project to a Hamama (Technology Incubator) and it was approved, but I am gave in to my wife and instead of dedicating myself to the project, accepted a salaried desk job in the Netzivut Ha maim (The Water Authority). That's me. Now, the pressure is on me again.

A delegation of senior engineers and development personnel from French carmaker Renault SA (Euronext:RNO) arrived in Israel yesterday to examine Israeli electric car technology for the Renault Nissan Alliance electric car program. The visit is part of the strategic cooperation between the Office of the Chief Scientist and Renault and Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (TSE:7201).

A few months ago, the Office of the Chief Scientist published a request for "Israeli companies with technologies in the areas of batteries, electric power systems, and advanced control systems to submit proposals that the Chief Scientist would forward to the Renault Nissan Alliance." The Office of the Chief Scientist will finance up to half of the authorized budgets for suitable joint projects with the Renault Nissan Alliance.

Imbecile Architecture

The pic show a staircase and skylight by Rick Mather, an American architect. In the renovation, he used the glass staircase to transform a dark Victorian structure into one filled with light, even on a gray day. It was a great success.

The problem is that human beings are wired to feel instintive fear of high places, probably evolved because falling off tall tree branches was (and is among monkeys) a vert real danger. People has nightmares of falling off from high places. Walking on transparent, unsubstancial surface, like walking on the air, can cause panic attacks. It certainly creates an unforgettable architectural experience, that is, a sensation of utter fear.

I dont like it. Architecture that conduces to panic is - imbecile. And who will maintain clean those glass surface, where every touch leaves its mark? Success, shmuxess. What about those traditional closed, dark, secure rooms, where one feels so comfortable. What good it makes to live in a house open to the sky, to the street, no privacy, a constant feeling of being nude and observed. The worst aspect of the glass is light. I have too much light in my Kever Benjamin apartment, the windows are too big, the luminosity of Israel is very strong, and it hurts my eyes. The city is built of white reflective houses, the apartment building in front doubles the amount of sunlight and irradiation I receive. In Israel, the use of glass in architecture is criminal, and the architect commiting such a crime should be condemned to live in a glass house during one long and blightening Israeli summer. With the air conditioner breaking down once a week. I have stated my opinion.

Arnold Kling´s Oil Market Model

My last year´s oil put (disastrous) speculation me dejo con la sangre en el ojo ie I am still looking for revenge. My "model" of the oil market was a bit simplistic ie plainly wrong. Prof. Kling offers a higher IQ model, which he thought out only to torture his nemesis Prof. Krugman, but which may be recycled for speculation. I copy it for future reflexion.

Think of there being two prices for oil; the forward price, say, for delivery one year from now; and the spot price, for delivery today.

The forward price reflects the market's view of long-term fundamentals in oil production and oil demand. Relative to that, and to other factors such as the interest rate, there is a normal inventory of oil along with a normal spread of the forward price over the spot price. The spot price is bid up to the point where refineries are just willing to hold the normal inventory. If the spot price is unusually low relative the forward price, then they hold above-normal inventories until spot prices rise. If the spot price is unusually high relative to the forward price, then refineries try to unload their inventories while they can get a good price.

In that model, I don't see how the level of inventories relates to the level of prices at all. I only see how it relates to the discrepancy between the spot price and its normal relationship to the forward price.

I assume Krugman has a different model. As to his larger question of whether the price of oil represents a bubble, my behavior shows that I agree with him that it is not. I would not dream of buying put options on oil futures, which says that I do not think that oil is clearly overpriced. However, I do not look at inventory levels as an indicator of whether or not forward prices are a good predictor of spot prices.

Suppose that the forward price of oil were ridiculously high relative to long-term fundamentals. In that case, I would expect refiners to bid the spot price up to ridiculously high levels also, while holding a normal level of inventories.

Krugman's Answer:

One of the things I find puzzling about the whole oil market discussion is how complicated people seem to make it. They get all wrapped up in stuff about forward markets, hedge funds, etc., and lose sight of the fundamental fact that there are only two things you can do with the world’s oil production: consume it, or store it.

It’s not complicated. If the price is above the level at which the demand from end-users is equal to production, there’s an excess supply — and that supply has to be going into inventories. End of story. If oil isn’t building up in inventories, there can’t be a bubble in the spot price.

Now it’s true that oil supply responds very little to price, and that empirical estimates of the short-run price elasticity of demand, like this one, suggest that it’s low — say -.06. But even so, the math of a sustained, large bubble quickly becomes daunting. Say the demand elasticity is -.06, and that you believe that the current price is 40% above the level at which end-use demand equals supply. Then you have to believe that 2 million barrels a day is disappearing into secret hoards somewhere — secret, because it’s not showing up in the OECD inventory data. That’s a lot of oil. And bear in mind that people have been claiming that there’s an oil bubble for years.

So my challenge to people who say there’s an oil bubble is this: let’s get physical. Tell me where you think the excess supply of crude is going.

Kling answers back and says that the excess oil is in fact left in the soil. That the producers compute, on the basis of future prices, if it is more profitable for them to pump and sell the oil today vs "store" the oil in the soil and pump it in the future and sell it at better prices.

I think that Kling is wrong. Oil production and supply is based mostly on long-term contracts, the short term price oscillations do not affect production. Moreover, the King of Saudi Arabia, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, el Partido Revolucionario Institucional of Mexico, etc. have such an uncontrollable urge for money that they are in no mood for postponing income.

Beytar Yerushalayim - Campeon de Israel

Yoav Ziv jumps and meets a foot. Arkady Gaydamek's Beytar Jerusalem Champions of Israel 2008!

Bacterial Evolution in Fuel Cells

The field is advancing. Willy Verstraete and his colleagues at Ghent University in Belgium tested the fuel cells in an array of configurations: in a series, in parallel and individually. Over the course of more than 200 days, the researchers fed the microbes a diet of anaerobic and aerobic sludge, as well as hospital and potato processing factory wastewater. By the end of the experimental time frame, the short-term power densities--a measure of power produced per unit of mass--of the fuel cells had tripled. The team also found that the parallel stack was most efficient at producing an electric charge, consistently creating stronger current.

The scientists main discovery, however, had to do with the co-evolution of the electrochemical properties of the fuel cell and the actual microbial community. At the start of the experiment, the tiny power plants relied on a diverse community of proteobacteria, including several species of Geobacter and Shewanella, and produced power somewhat inefficiently. But by the end of the experiment--when performance was at its peak--one species, Brevibacillus agri, made up the majority of the electron-producing microbes.

This is very interesting. Brevibacillus agri is a pathogen of Malacosoma neustria (see pic of a nest of some 200 larvae just emerged, protected by a silk net, on an apple tree), an important agricultural pest. It parasites Malacosoma (Lepidopterae) larvae. Why should this pathogenic bacteria feed efficiently on wastewater and generate electricity?

(If I were a Creationist, I could say to a Darwinist: Show me how this strange phenomenon arose by natural evolution! Since I am a Darwinist, I say: How mysterious are the ways of the Lord! Nota Bene: This pretends to be a Hungarian bon mot).

Excess Salinity, FOG and COD in a Large Bakery

I was recommended by the Ministry of Health to consult in a wastewater case: a large bakery (about 60 workers) generating unacceptable effluents: very saline, very acidic, COD = 10,000 mg/lt, too much fats and lipids. The salt and acidity problem I diagnosed and solved on the spot: it is caused by the water of the gallon conserves of olives in brine and in acetic acid, since they use to spill the bitter water into the sewage. A separate line with an underground HDPE reservoir, to be evacuated periodically (to the sea outfall), solves the problem. I hope. The problem of the fats is solvable by adding interceptor capacity to the existing two interceptors, one cubic meter each, which do litte good. And reducing the wasting of margarine: I discovered that margarine was the main ingredient of their products, and they put one layer of margarine and one layer of dough (see pic). Large boxes of margarine stand near the production lines. Burekas and other Israeli delicacies are rich in margarine. Well, no problem, fat - saturated or unsaturated - floats and separates nicely.

The problem of the high organic material dissolved and in suspension is difficult because they will not settle at all. Sugar is the culprit, and they use generously. And the fine flour dust which floats in the air and accumulates in every corner (see pic), it settles in the open drains and is washed down daily by water. The literature talks about anaerobic digesters, but I dont think we in Israel are mature for that technology. Maybe precipitation (of the hydrolized flour particles) is more feasible. I have much work.

Part of the workers are Russian immigrant girls (pic) supervised by a fat Arab. I commented that some of the girls were quite cute, and the Arab called one of them and asked her if she wanted to do overtime (with him) and the girl said yes and turned away in shame. Is this a sign that we are opressing our Arab minority so much that they feel compulsed to demonstrate their manhood by humiliating and screwing our girls?

KOOR: Quizás, quizás, quizás.

Koor Industries Ltd. (TASE:KOR) has called off talks to bring in a partner for Makhteshim Agan Industries Ltd. (TASE: MAIN) after three weeks of negotiations with an international company. Had the sale gone forward, Koor, a unit of IDB Holding Corp. Ltd. (TASE:IDBH), would have reaped a huge capital gain. As things are now, the share lost 4% of its worth. During the last month, KOOR has announced three or four times that she had decided, and when she had to put out, said ¨No¨.

Sailing the Persian Gulf

The Military Sealift Command fast combat support ship USNS Rainier, center, provides fuel for the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, bottom, and the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell in the Persian Gulf. The pic gives me a sensation of fresh, salty sea breeze and a sense of self confidence, security. I need it as I am depressed. Today my Mother was evaluated by a Social Security nurse and unthinkingly, she proudly demonstrated how she managed alone without any help, and how her family loves and surounds her, so the evil nurse wrote she needs no assistance. On the other hand, my portfolio has broken the last record high. Life is difficult.

Valero leaving the oil business?

Valero sold the Kurz Refiney to Alon for half price and announced is buying 72 convenience stores and fueling kiosks. This will expand Valero's company-owned retail presence in Texas, Colorado, Arizona and Louisiana, where Valero already operates approximately 950 company-owned Corner Store locations. High oil prices and a refiner leaving the sector?

Valero Energy Corp. bought the Memphis refinery in 2005 and is looking for a buyer. "Last year, we decided to take a look at each of our refineries to see how they fit into our portfolio and if it is best to continue making investments in them or if they may be worth more to someone else in another system," said Valero spokesman Bill Day. Valero got the Memphis refinery when it purchased Premcor. Last year, it sold a refinery in Lima, Ohio, it also got in the acquisition. Memphis refinery has the capacity to refine 195,000 barrels a day.

It seems to me Valero is, confusingly, trying to get out of the oil business. Maybe even they dont know what to do.

Ady Himmelblau

She is a successful Israeli model. Need I expain?

Obama

Barack Obama is clinching the Democratic Party nomination and has favorable chances to become the next US President. I am not American, but America is so important for world peace and survival, that its elections are, in a way, everybody's business. When the Roman empire decayed, it was very bad for evebody, even for those who were not Romans. England, for example, became unlivable for several centuries after the Romans left. Obama poses some difficult questions:

(1) He has unresolved identity problems, bordering on neurosis.
(2) His economic concepts are infantile, anti-industrial and anti-globalist. He cherishes the pre-industrial, artesanal, village workshop forms of production. He seems to be totally ignorant of the basics of modern market economy.
(3) His social solutions are romantic, idealistic, impracticable. Why you two dont shake hands?
(4) Apparently, he never gave a thought to the Middle East conflict. Having grown up in a Muslim environment in Indonesia, and then in an indifferent school in Hawai, he was never exposed to a pro-Israeli environment.
(5) He is a professional organizer of poor Black neighborhoods in Chicago. He has learned that success is to channel more government money and privileges to the underclass. He will probably spend much time and effort in advancing social and educational programs.
(6) He has pesonally benefited from governmental favoritism and promotion, so he can be expected to deepen these systems.
(7) He is an extremely talented speaker and writer, yet his spoken and written output is scarce and very carefully controlled to advance his political aims. In fact, little is known about what he really thinks.

Microbial Fuel Cell (cont.)

The latest experiment produced about 15 mW per sq.m. with 92% removal of BOD. I used a synthetic wastewater simulating average Israeli parameters, but obviously concentrated sugary industrial wastewaters would produce better results. Maybe I should try with Bat Yam's yeast factory wastewater, if it still exists (the last I was there, that was the only yeast factory in Israel). It has a concentration of 35,000 mg/lt BOD. One limitant seems to be the incapacity of the microbial electron production process to overcome resistance. Next step will be to connect to earth and learn more about the resistance thingie. If I have some free moments, I shall make school experiment model, there is demand for these environmental things. I presume a real profitable model is very far, but environmental imbecilities dont have to be profitable. I presume industries will buy a thingie from me even if it produces electricity 100 times more expensively than the Israel Electric Corporation. I feel like Exxon in the ethanol business, that is playing with a toy and/or telling tales to a child, but that seems to be the green concept. The success of Brainwave mesmerizer and of the 70 million dollar Israel Cleantech Fund is very sobering for me. The illustration is a Mesmer cabinet, nada que ver.

How much is a Refinery worth?

Alon USA Energy Inc., the US energy subsidiary of Alon Israel Oil Co Ltd, controlled by David Wiessman, has bought a refinery from US energy giant Valero Energy Corp. for $333 million plus performance bonuses. The final price will be deterimed in accordance with market prices when the deal is completed. The refinery, in Krotz Springs, Louisiana, produces 83,100 barrels per day. Alon's purchase price of about $4,000 per barrel was well below the $10,000 to $15,000 Valero was thought to be seeking. Last year, Husky Energy Inc (HSE.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) bought Valero's refinery in Lima, Ohio, for $1.9 billion, or about $13,000 per barrel. Extrapolating, how much is BAZAN (the Haifa Refinery) worth? Did I buy (a fistful of) its shares above its worth?

BAZAN's market cap is 1.6 billion US$ and its refining capacity is 180,000 barrels/day = 10,000 $/barrel. Pic Ehud Marani, the CEO.

Worth thinking out

A blogger, Eric Falkenstein, discovered several statistical anomalies in stock prices which exploited successfully within the framework of a mutual fund. Discovered is the wrong word, because no one ever discovers nothing: ideas are nebulous thingies floating around in the air that several people catches simultaneously. Like Darwin and Wallace with evolution. Like me and ten thousand other people with the Argentina peso and the Uruguay peso arbitrage opportunity in 1967. Falkenstein writes: I especially like my minimum variance portfolios. They take an index, say the S&P500, and then run a volatility minimization program, and go long that subset. Easy alpha!I had been trying to verify this idea on TASE, but I have no time and probably the local sharks already have this thingie fully digested. Maybe German borse is a better place to try. (Above VIX vs S&P. The risk/return trade-off with VIX tends to be asymmetrical, meaning decreases in the S&P 500 have larger effects on volatility than increases, caused by the loss aversion human brain wiring error. Vita breve, ars longa. Meaning life is too short and there is so much wine to drink.